Will Sam Rosen and AellaGirl have sex by EOY 2029?
Will Sam Rosen and AellaGirl have sex by EOY 2029?
Plus
15
Ṁ9532030
84%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
@stochasticcockatoo does sex before this market was created count or is Nate gonna have to invite Sam to the gangbang?
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will Jose Luis Ricon (JLR) and AellaGirl both make love in 2024?
12% chance
Will I (Aella) find someone to seriously date by the end of 2029?
76% chance
Will Laurence Ion and Rochelle Shen end up in a relationship or falling in love by EOY2028?
51% chance
Will chris (strutheo) get girl pregnant by EOY2029?
58% chance
Will Aella release a AI girlfriend in collaboration with @realGeorgeHotz by 2026
10% chance
Will AellaGirl feel Bryan Johnson's sui generis giant boner inside her by EOY 2030?
26% chance
Will gwern and AellaGirl finally have a relationship?
6% chance
Will two people who first meet in person at Manifest 2024 be married by EOY 2025?
43% chance
Will Aella have a child by 2030?
73% chance
Will Jose Luis Ricon and Zoe Isabel Senon end up dating by EOY 2029?
20% chance