How many Falcon 9-family rockets will SpaceX have launched at the time of their retirement?
How many Falcon 9-family rockets will SpaceX have launched at the time of their retirement?
Basic
11
Ṁ8622050
810
expected
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Market closes at the time the last rocket from the Falcon 9-family has launched, per the criteria at https://manifold.markets/ianminds/when-will-the-last-spacex-falcon-9. I.e. if a Falcon rocket comes out of retirement to stop an asteroid or something, this market will not be reopened ;-)
Falcon Heavy and any other as of yet undeveloped future derivatives will count for this market.
Initial value set at 300 per this ancient tweet: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/995462943079723008.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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