Will EITHER US AI regulation or AI misuse (by user) cause significant crash/decline in a tech (AI) stock price in 2024?
Basic
8
Ṁ423Jan 2
18%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Let's define a significant decline as -25+% in the span of two weeks, for any one of the following NVDA, GOOG, MSFT, AMD, AMZN, TSLA, ADBE, AAPL (and others within reason) reasonably linked to regulation or user misuse. Includes GPU export/manufacturing restrictions. Please correct with reasonable fixes to this question.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
Does "misuse" include accidents/alignment failures like the ones AI safety ppl are worried about?
@MilfordHammerschmidt Ah, good point. In misuse here, I would include "model assistance for cyberattacks and chem/bio/radiological/nuclear threats" but not a misaligned "persuasive model" or "autonomous model" (language ~from openai preparedness framework). What would accidents mean--or anything else I'm still missing?
Related questions
Related questions
Will AI cause a financial crash within a decade? (By Oct 2032)
58% chance
Will the "Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100" market decline to 10% by the end of 2024?
52% chance
Will some U.S. software engineers be negatively affected financially due to AI by end of 2025?
65% chance
Will a leading AI organization in the United States be the target of an anti-AI attack or protest by the end of 2024?
30% chance
Will the AI hype crash soon? (before the end of 2025)
23% chance
Will AI cause a market crash (2024)?
4% chance
Will a major tech company announce a significant new AI regulation compliance feature by the end of 2024?
55% chance
Will 3 Big AI Companies lose 10% of market cap in a single day (AI Bubble Pop) by 2025?
5% chance
Will AI cause an incident resulting in $1b of losses or 100 lost lives?
Will some U.S. investment bankers be negatively affected financially due to AI by end of 2025?
25% chance