Background

The "Big One" refers to a major earthquake expected to occur along the San Andreas Fault in California. The San Andreas Fault is a transform fault that extends roughly 750 miles through California, forming the tectonic boundary between the Pacific Plate and the North American Plate.

According to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS):

• There is a 7% chance of a magnitude 8.0+ earthquake in Southern California within the next 30 years

• There is a 75% chance of a magnitude 7.0+ earthquake in the same timeframe

• There is a 70% chance of one or more magnitude 6.7+ earthquakes before 2030

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve YES if a major earthquake (magnitude 7.5 or greater) occurs along the San Andreas Fault system during the specified timeframe. The earthquake must be officially confirmed by the USGS and its epicenter must be located on the San Andreas Fault system.

The market will resolve NO if no such earthquake occurs during the specified timeframe.

Considerations

• While scientists can estimate probabilities, exact earthquake prediction remains impossible with current technology

• The Parkfield segment of the San Andreas Fault has historically experienced regular earthquakes approximately every 22 years, with the last one occurring in 2004

• Recent simulations suggest that while a major earthquake would be devastating, its impact on certain areas like Los Angeles may not be as catastrophic as previously thought

• Smaller earthquakes or earthquakes on nearby faults will not qualify for resolution