Will there be at least 5 living ex-POTUSes at any point before 2045?
Will there be at least 5 living ex-POTUSes at any point before 2045?
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ex-POTUS - An individual who has completed their tenure as POTUS and is no longer serving in office.
Currently that would be Trump, Clinton, Obama and Bush, but on Jan 21 2025 that would only be Biden, Clinton, Obama and Bush
Rresolves YES if, at any point before January 1, 2045, there are at least 5 living ex-presidents or NO otherwise.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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24 December 2024: Carter, Bush Jr, Clinton, Obama, Trump
It was before 2045, so why not resolve to YES immediately?
bought Ṁ10 YES from 57% to 58% 3mo
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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