Will Nicolas Maduro accept asylum in the US by the end of 2024?
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Roll to disbelieve. This is just message control. You don't want the public to know if it's unsuccessful. If it's successful, you've got the results to show for it and it's a net positive message

When has asylum been discussed? The WSJ article notes an "amnesty" offer. Unless I am mistaken, there is a distinction between the two. Maduro may still have to stay in Venezuela or find asylum in another country (ie. Mexico, Peru)

Yes, it would be good to get some clarity on this. In my understanding:

Amnesty= forgiving crimes and foregoing prosecution.

Asylum = granting legal residence

If Maduro is offered amnesty in multiple countries, he can choose where he applies for asylum.

Technically, the US could grant amnesty but refuse asylum? But that would be quite weird.

I see your point. Though I don’t think either would involve him staying in Venezuela. The US can only give him Amnesty in a jurisdiction they control but I suppose any new Venezuelan government could do that.

I had intended asylum as it is defined. I believe Bolsanaro sought such protections but they were ultimately denied and he was deported back to Brazil.

Very interesting situation. I really just finished 'The Dictator's Handbook' where this is suggested as the way to deal with dictators. Offer them and their family a cozy and safer life. If their other option is threatening enough, they'll take it off they're somewhat rational (most dictators are). The question is: is he under enough threat?

The authors also note that in this situation, making such an offer destabilizes a leader, as his core supporters become uncertain that he will stay in power (and therefore they need to consider taking action to safeguard themselves).

Fascinating book.

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