Each answer resolves to 32×(r - 2.5%), where r is the lower-end of the target range for the Federal funds rate, in percentage points, after the US Federal Reserve FOMC meeting in the given month in 2024.

For example, if the FOMC leaves rates unchanged with a target range of 5.25–5.5% in their January meeting, then January will resolve to 32×(5.25% - 2.50%) = 88%.

If this result would be outside the range [0%, 100%], then the answer resolves to 0% or 100%, whichever is closest.

Here is a handy table mapping the fed funds rate target range to resolution probability:

2.50–2.75%: resolves to 0%
2.75–3.00%: resolves to 8%
3.00–3.25%: resolves to 16%
3.25–3.50%: resolves to 24%
3.50–3.75%: resolves to 32%
3.75–4.00%: resolves to 40%
4.00–4.25%: resolves to 48%
4.25–4.50%: resolves to 56%
4.50–4.75%: resolves to 64%
4.75–5.00%: resolves to 72%
5.00–5.25%: resolves to 80%
5.25–5.50%: resolves to 88%
5.50–5.75%: resolves to 96%