Resolves YES if Trump signs legislation to end Social Security, Medicare, Affordable Care or SNAPs.
Resolves NO, if Trump does not sign legislation to end Social Security, Medicare, Affordable Care or SNAPs by the end of his second term.
Resolves N/A if Trump is not elected in 2024.
States with high participation in SNAPs [Food Stamps...] programs include poor rust belt states like West Virginia with >16% SNAPs participation that overwhelmingly support Trump.
Update 2025-05-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator clarified the definition of "end" or "elimination":
The market tracks the termination of these programs, not the reduction of their services through partial defunding or handicapping.
Broadly, elimination means closing all offices and associated services.
If a program's stated functions are no longer being met, even if some components (like databases) persist elsewhere, it may resolve YES.
Specifically for Social Security:
Resolves YES if it no longer serves as a retirement savings account (collecting and distributing money), even if social security numbers/databases continue to exist as part of some other program.
Specifically for the Affordable Care Act (ACA):
Resolves YES if the following three conditions are met, even if associated protections are somehow retained:
The elimination of Medicaid eligibility expansion
Repealing premium tax credits and cost-sharing subsidies
Closing the Insurance Exchange
1,000
3.00When you say “end”, I assume this does not include the case where a program is not ended, but has its eligibility requirements tightened and/or benefits reduced?
And could you go into more detail on what you would consider termination of ACA? Trump himself claimed to be ending it when he revoked the individual coverage mandate, but the actual subsidies were not removed.
@JamesEAdministrator The goal of this market was to track and predict the termination of these programs and not the reduction of their services through partial defunding or handicapping.
Broadly, I would define "elimination" as a closing of all offices and associated services. In the case where some of the services offered by a program are terminated and others are rolled into other programs I would try to asses if the stated functions of the program were still being met.
If Social Security no longer served as a retirement savings account, collecting and distributing money but social security numbers and databases continued to exist as part of some other program, I would resolve as YES.
ACA would require:
1 - The elimination of Medicaid eligibility expansion
2 - Repealing premium tax credits and cost-sharing subsidies
3 - Closing the Insurance Exchange
If these 3 conditions are met, even if associated protections are somehow retained, I would resolve this market as YES.