Resolves YES if, at any point in 2035, it is illegal to sell a new gas car in the state of California.
Context: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/24/climate/california-gas-cars-emissions.html
1,000
3.00How will this market resolve if for the entire year most new gas cars are illegal to sell but some exceptions exist? eg hybrid cars, emergency vehicles, stairs trucks for use at airports
I don't really know enough about this to bet much, but it just got announced today that the EPA has approved California to ban them by 2035: https://apnews.com/article/california-auto-emissions-epa-climate-change-1ce052a131554452f651780baa783ffb
This is specifically related to passenger vehicles? If sale of gasoline-powered long-haul trucks or bulldozers are legal, for example, this can still resolve YES?
This seems too optimistic.
I reckon they will charge fees or extra sales tax of some kind to highly discourage it, but not make it illegal, at least not within 13 years.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00