Peter Zeihan is convinced that the China will have increasing political turmoil: "This is a country that will not last a whole lot longer" (Jan 10 2023, https://youtu.be/fHs8wqj3WQY).
This market resolves YES if there is general geopolitical consensus in the West that the existing single-party Chinese state has collapsed by start of 2025.
Since geopolitics is messy, examples of outcomes that would convince me to resolve YES:
A new government separate from the Chinese Communist Party is running the country
A coup that replaces the existing faction government (more than a new President replacing Xi from within the Chinese Communist Party)
A widespread civil war that results in separately governed geographic areas
China's quarterly international trade reduced by over 50%
China's quarterly GDP reduced by over 50%
1,000
3.00@AlQuinn That would qualify for this market, though Zeihan seems to think it’d be more disruptive.