Gary Marcus 2024 predictions

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Ṁ4181

Jan 1

97%

No robust solution to hallucinations

86%

Modest lasting corporate adoption

85%

Price wars

65%

No massive advance (no GPT-5, or disappointing GPT-5)

50%

Modest profits, split 7-10 ways

40%

7-10 GPT-4 level models

18%

Very little moat for anyone

Gary Marcus made this tweet https://x.com/garymarcus/status/1766871625075409381?s=46&t=B66Otgh2q0Cl91N3A5P9ZA

with 7 predictions on LLMs this market will track them and their outcomes. I will not trade on this market. Some will be pretty subjective I will do my best to find a consensus resolution but may well end up resolving them N/A if it is not clear.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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#Gary Marcus GPT-4 predictions

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@alexlitz What's our current count here? This is the current Chatbot Arena leaderboard, but some of these are plausibly the same model and shouldn't be double counted:

1

Gemini-1.5-Pro-Exp-0801

1299 +4/-5 15244 Google Proprietary 2023/11 2

GPT-4o-2024-05-13

1286 +3/-4 72589 OpenAI Proprietary 2023/10 3

GPT-4o-mini-2024-07-18

1277 +4/-5 16064 OpenAI Proprietary 2023/10 3

Claude 3.5 Sonnet

1271 +3/-4 42939 Anthropic Proprietary 2024/4 4

Gemini Advanced App (2024-05-14)

1266 +3/-3 52126 Google Proprietary Online 4

Meta-Llama-3.1-405b-Instruct

1264 +5/-4 13831 Meta Llama 3.1 Community 2023/12 6

Gemini-1.5-Pro-001

1260 +3/-3 64638 Google Proprietary 2023/11 6

Gemini-1.5-Pro-Preview-0409

1257 +3/-4 55593 Google Proprietary 2023/11 6

GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09

bought Ṁ10 NO

Can you explain how you intend to resolve this one?

I work for Microsoft, and we're all in on pushing LLMs in every possible product. That sounds like much more than modest adoption.

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