Will 50% of the human population die in a 12 month time period before 2050? | Manifold

Will 50% of the human population die in a 12 month time period before 2050?

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#Existential Risk

#Human population crisis

#Non-AI Doom composite

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It's interesting that this market is at 8% and the market on >50% of the population dying for because of misaligned AI is at 27%. I think there's a bias for people who put a significant probability on transformative AI to still use the business-as-usual mindset when forecasting non-AI questions?

The 2030s yes.

@MarkIngraham That's a 10 year time period, not a 12 month time period.

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