Who will be the BJP's PM candidate for the Indian General Election expected in 2029?
Basic
6
Ṁ6722029
21%
Narendra Modi
17%
Yogi Adityanath
2%
Subrahmanyam Jaishankar
25%
Amit Shah
4%
Nitin Gadkari
7%
Shivraj Singh Chouhan
2%
Devendra Fadnavis
3%
K Annamalai
19%
More precisely, the question applies to the general election held to elect the 19th Lok Sabha, whether or not that is held in 2029.
Resolution technicalities/edge-cases:
The candidate may be a non-BJP candidate from an allied party, if backed by the BJP.
If the BJP does not announce its candidate before the election:
If there is a candidate overwhelmingly assumed to be the candidate in the media eye, resolves to them.
Otherwise if they subsequently win (are in government), then resolves to the prime minister
Otherwise if they subsequently lose, then resolves N/A (not to the leader of the opposition, because that's kind of a funky role)
If the general election in question is suspended indefinitely, resolves N/A.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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