If Trump is re-elected in 2024, will he try to hold onto power after 2028?
➕
Plus
17
Ṁ1418
2029
24%
chance

i.e. will Trump attempt to subvert the two-term limit? Must be a serious attempt, e.g. announcing he will run for re-election in 2028 or initiating some legal proceedings to repeal the 22nd. Idle wondering or trolling doesn't count.

Resolves N/A if Trump is not elected in 2024.

Resolves NO if Trump leaves or dies mid-way through his second term.

Resolves NO if a time-traveller occupies the white house for two weeks in his first-term and Trump wishes to stay an extra two weeks to compensate.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

to subvert the two-term limit

What if he gets the two-term limit changed first so that he's not "subverting" it? Like passing an amendment, or using the National Emergencies Act to declare the limit to be "indefinitely on hold" and then vetoing Congress's subsequent cancellation of emergency powers?

It will resolve as YES in that case.

bought Ṁ50 NO
predictedYES

If Trump is not elected in 2024, will he still try to gain power?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules