Will South Korea offer a 100 million won baby bonus (~$70k) by 2028?
Will South Korea offer a 100 million won baby bonus (~$70k) by 2028?
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They are testing public reaction: https://www.independent.co.uk/asia/east-asia/south-korea-birth-rate-cash-incentive-b2533188.html.
Resolves to YES if South Korea implements such a bonus by the deadline such that new mothers going forward can rely on getting paid (whether or not anyone has yet been paid), and the payment is 100 million won or more.
For purposes of this question it must be a cash payment, not benefits or a tax deduction, and must have NPV of 100 million won within two year of birth (so if it was delayed beyond that, they'd have to pay more).
Resolves to NO otherwise.
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if there's a cap, or if not all mothers are eligible for it (job requirements, two-parent household) does this resolve NO?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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