This question will resolve to NO on November 6, 2024.
This exists as a baseline for other election predictions, especially ones that cannot happen - this market should trade at the same value as whether e.g. Hillary Clinton will run for president, or whether Trump will be president prior to the next inauguration day.
1,000
3.00Other expiration dates:
12/31/2024: https://manifold.markets/Lorxus/what-is-the-riskfree-interest-rate-2fe30d91de52?r=SGFycmlzb25OYXRoYW4
Multiple longer dates: https://manifold.markets/HarrisonNathan/what-is-manifolds-yield-curve?r=SGFycmlzb25OYXRoYW4
@Tumbles Not quite true. If you think someone will need to buy out for liquidity you could try and turn a profit. But mostly doesn't seem wise.
@ZviMowshowitz I sold my NO at 1% for a +4% election-related arbitrage opportunity, so I guess this eventuality came true.
@kottsiek Why not bet this market down instead? The change of this happening is basically 0. Maybe people think a random user has a 2% chance of misresolving. Or Manifold is just slightly inefficent.
@kottsiek Manifold is totally inefficient. One of many inefficiency mechanisms: profits and costs are rounded to the nearest M$, so you have to bet very large amounts of M$ to get any profit on markets with low/high probabilities.
Also, users do mis-resolve, or forget to resolve, or many other things.
@AdriaGarrigaAlonso I don't know about this rounding thing. Isn't that just an artifact of the UI? If I look at the API, profits balances are represented as floating-point.
@AdriaGarrigaAlonso forgeting to resolve will be fixed by the admins eventually (at most two weeks later in my experience) and two weeks should not really make a difference on such a long horizon.
@kottsiek Buying YES is definitely the more fun way! I had previously bought some low and sold it high to @EthanGlass (also thank for wishing me good luck @Gurkenglas). And honestly, I personally think another spike like that is totally possible:
@1941159478 Your market existing probably increased the odds by a lot. We'll see. What do you think is the "correct" annual risk free interest rate?
@kottsiek I guess I agree with @AdriaGarrigaAlonso that Manifold is just not that coherent. There's a bunch of markets with a resolution date way out in the future and an extreme probability. But also this:
@1941159478 The creator of the Trump rationalussy market hasn’t created any markets so it’s definitely not risk free, while this market is by someone who has a public image to uphold and I trust not to misresolve this type of market. I’d guess 10% is probably more accurate for the Trump market (actually I’ll go over and bet that up now).