Does drinking from plastic bottles actually cause negative health effects in humans by the best evidence in 2034?
Does drinking from plastic bottles actually cause negative health effects in humans by the best evidence in 2034?
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Resolves YES if according to my best judgement at the close date of this market based on reviewing the evidence, drinking from plastic bottles leads to significant negative health effects in humans. NO otherwise. N/A if it's impossible to resolve accurately.
Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): Health risks from plastic bottles that have been stored for extended but reasonable periods will be considered in the resolution, as long as the risk is significant when accounting for the probability of bottles being stored for such durations.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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What if the health risk comes from only plastic bottles that have been sitting on a shelf for longer than normal?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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