Will independence supporting parties maintain a majority in the next Scottish Parliament Election?
Will independence supporting parties maintain a majority in the next Scottish Parliament Election?
Basic
10
Ṁ3022026
32%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question will resolve yes if parties which support independence win the majority of seats in the Scottish Parliament in the next election, which due to be held on Thursday 7 May 2026.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
bought Ṁ20 NO7mo
I have created a similar question for seat shares on all the parties at the next Scottish election:
https://manifold.markets/PontiMin/in-the-next-scottish-parliamentary
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will the next Scottish independence referendum pass?
50% chance
Will the Scottish Labour Party be the second largest party in Holyrood after the next election?
50% chance
Will there be another Scottish Independence referendum by 2026?
4% chance
In the next Scottish Parliamentary Election, due in 2026, what %age of the seats will each party win?
Will there be a Scottish Parliament election by the end of 2025?
8% chance
In the next Northern Ireland Assembly election, will nationalists win at least as many seats as unionists?
78% chance
How many MSPs will the Scottish Greens get at the next Scottish Parliament election?