How long will it take for the population of South Korea to be cut in half?
How long will it take for the population of South Korea to be cut in half?
Basic
8
Ṁ6022100
1.9%
2050 or earlier
4%
2050-2059
8%
2060-2069
16%
2070-2079
35%
2080-2089
21%
2090-2099
15%
2100 or later (or never)
This market is using 51,800,000 as the starting population, so it resolves when the population drops to 25,900,000.
Only one option will be chosen, the range of years during which the population first dips low enough.
This market refers to the area of land currently referred to as South Korea.
A resource:
https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/south-korea-population/
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Huh, I think maybe around 10 min per person if you're experienced, times the population round about 984 years. Faster if you are allowed to use an electrical saw.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
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and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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