Will any G20 leader announce the existence of non human intelligence in our solar system by the end of 2024? | Manifold

Will any G20 leader announce the existence of non human intelligence in our solar system by the end of 2024?

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NO

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Nothing already widely accepted or created by homo sapiens counts as NHI. Dogs and human made AI doesn't count. Nor does the loch Ness monster or big foot, unless they turn out to roughly match or exceed human intelligence.

But time traveling ghosts or genetic relatives who live in the earth's core would count as much as classic aliens.

Also 'leader' means president or prime minister or equivalent.

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I'd really like some clarification on what counts as "non human intelligence". Gpt-4 or a dog shouldn't count, right?

predictedYES

@AlekseyVoropaev Your assumptions are correct. Nothing already widely accepted or created by homo sapiens. But time traveling ghosts or genetic relatives who live in the earth's core would count as much as classic aliens.

@TJf559 Might be worth adding this to the description!

I was actually looking for a market like this earlier today to see how it responded to the congressional hearing yesterday. Awesome that there is now one made!

A bit of a shame we can't compare what it would have been prior to yesterday and see if it had any significant impact

@DavidChee I've spent some mana to boost it in people's feeds and added some additional subsidy!

predictedYES

There will be plenty more disclosure events to measure!

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