Manifold Scouts: NFL Quarterback Peak Success

Ṁ595

2100

80%

Joe Burrow

80%

Brock Purdy

80%

Jared Goff

80%

Jimmy Garoppolo

72%

Josh Allen

65%

Lamar Jackson

60%

Jayden Daniels

55%

Sam Darnold

55%

Bo Nix

55%

Caleb Williams

50%

C.J. Stroud

50%

Justin Herbert

50%

Drake Maye

50%

Cam Ward

50%

J.J. McCarthy

50%

Dak Prescott

50%

Kyler Murray

50%

Michael Penix Jr.

50%

Tua Tagovailoa

50%

Bryce Young

Resolves based on the peak season result for an NFL quarterback during their career. A players resolves either when they retire or win the super bowl. Resolution occurs as follows based on the team's peak performance:

100% - Starts and Wins Super Bowl
80% - Starts Super Bowl
60% - Starts Conference Championship
40% - Starts Divisional Round
20% - Starts Wildcard Round
0% - Never Make Playoffs

Each player in question must start the game to qualify (take the first offensive snap).

Tenure as of creation is taken into account (i.e. Joe Burrow will resolve at at least 80%, Josh Allen will resolve at at least 60%, Mason Rudolph will resolve at least 20% as of the end of the 2024/25 season).

Returning from retirement can count as it's own tenure, but won't change any past results.

If the NFL folds (or inherently changes in an extreme way where all the coaches are removed/change at the same time), then all quarterbacks will resolve at their previous peak.

This questions is everlasting, I will add new quarterbacks each draft cycle.