What will the US obesity rate be in 2030?
What will the US obesity rate be in 2030?
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This market will resolve to the best estimate of the US national obesity rate during the year 2030. (If necessary, I will pick the number from the earliest date during the year, although in practice it seems like there's usually one official estimate per year.) Note that this may require waiting until after 2030 to resolve the market as obesity rates are often only calculated for a given year 2-4 years after.
In terms of sources, I'll intend to use the "most official" source I can find. As of this writing, that seems to be the WHO's obesity statistics but I welcome recommendations for better sources.
In practice, I'm hoping this market can act like an "index" of sorts tracking expectations about obesity.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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