Will China recreate GPT-4o by EOY 2024?
Plus
21
Ṁ1925Jan 1
20%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Text, audio input-output, vision input-output all need to be at a similar level.
GPT-4o-0513
Text will be measured by ELO on Lmsys with a margin less then 10.
Criterion for audio and vision are yet to be determined.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
@ismellpillows Chinese company/organizations.
I.e. if Huawei Tel Aviv lab made it, it counts. Meanwhile, MSRA does not count
Related questions
Related questions
Who will release a GPT-4o comparable model in 2024?
Will an open source model beat GPT-4 in 2024?
65% chance
Will there be an open source LLM as good as GPT4 by the end of 2024?
68% chance
Will GPT-4o ("omni") be released by the end of the year? (see description)
26% chance
Is GPT-4 best? (Thru 2025)
63% chance
Will there be an open source LLM as good as GPT4 by June 2024?
15% chance
Will OpenAI release a model better than GPT-4o without test time compute before EOY 2024?
74% chance
Will an open-source LLM beat or match GPT-4 by the end of 2024?
85% chance
Will GPT 5 be realeased in Beta by EOY 2024?
15% chance
China has/already had access to GPT-4 weights; proof before 2025
9% chance