Luigi Mangione manifesto prop bets (add answers)

Plus

Ṁ40k

Apr 1

98.9%

UnitedHealthcare mentioned by name (incl abbreviations)

98.9%

Mentions mafia or derivative (e.g. mob, mafioso)

98.8%

Mentions “The Feds”

98.2%

Is under 300 words

93%

Whole Manifesto released in December

Mentions a denied insurance claim from himself or someone he knows

Specific mention of Brian Thompson and/or United CEO (incl first name only, last name only, or abbreviated title)

Manifesto published on substack by Mangione

1.1%

Trump mentioned by name or title

If no Manifesto (or snippets) is released by the end of March 2025 then all answers will resolve NO except "No manifesto released" which will resolve to YES.

Please be considerate when submitting answers. Please be as specific as possible when adding answers. Mods please feel free to edit the description to include peoples' comments with criteria for their submitted answers.

If portions of the Manifesto are released I will start proactively resolving answers which have their criteria met.

Update 2024-10-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - When a manifesto is released, answers will be resolved YES immediately if criteria are met
- Other answers will wait 48 hours before being resolved NO
- If evidence of a second manifesto emerges during the 48-hour period, NO resolutions will be delayed until after the second manifesto is released

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

CEO Shooter

#Prop Bets

#UnitedHealthcare CEO Assassination

#Assassinations

Get

1,000

and

3.00

16 Comments

47 Holders

227 Trades

Sort by:

@traders for a tangentially related market see here:

boughtṀ500 YES

@Houston2025 Am I missing a word from the Klippenstein manifesto or is there another copy circulating?

@Sketchy I'm seeing it reported by CBS and others.

In Klippenstein's, it should be the indecipherable in the line "these [indecipherable] have simply gotten too powerful"

bought Ṁ500 NO

Ken Klippenstein just dropped it: https://www.kenklippenstein.com/p/luigis-manifesto

Just to be abundantly clear “under 300 words” and any of my additions are in reference to the handwritten manifesto found by police on Mangione - not any subsequent manifestos that may be found

bought Ṁ150 YES

Alleged full-text of manifesto:
https://archive.is/7jUsF

@snazzlePop doesn't include "These parasites had it coming,” and “I do apologize for any strife and trauma, but it had to be done", contrary to numerous news pieces that reportedly quote the manifesto.
@SirSalty how will this market resolve if it turns out that @LuigiMangione wrote multiple manifestos?

also, you misspelled Luigi's last name in the market title 😉

@snazzlePop I think this is fake, his parents are rich

@snazzlePop hmm, will proactively resolve things yes as the first Manifesto is released and wait 48 hours before resolving other options no. If it becomes clear before or within that 48 hour period that there is a 2nd manifesto then will wait for it before resolving any options NO.

@SirSalty should some of these be able to resolve yes (Feds, United, etc)?

@snazzlePop Likely fake also because it was posted too soon after the arrest. If he was doing a dead man switch thing by scheduling the post then moving the schedule back as long as he was free, that's cutting it too close. It contains details that could be used to identify him, so he wouldn't want it to accidentally post while he was still free.

Is it bugged and no one else can submit answers?

@SirSalty oh weird I see them now

bought Ṁ50 YES

Retracted

bought Ṁ950 NO

Snippets of manifesto already shared https://www.newsweek.com/unitedhealthcare-ceo-shooter-manhunt-updates-cops-question-man-brian-thompsons-killing-1997858

From NYT

@SirSalty

Related questions

Related questions