End of war will be determined by Wikipedia. This market will resolve by my subjective evaluation of the prevailing public opinion in Israel, but any relevant polls can definitely inform the resolution. I will not bet on this market. "A Mistake" here refers specifically to the response to the October 7th massacre being a mistake, not to the events leading to it.
For base rate and context, the only war which Israelis consider to be a mistake is the First Lebanon War. There are other wars where we made mistakes leading up to the war, such as the Yom Kippur ('73) war, or wars which were probably not worth the bloodshed, such as the Second Lebanon War, but those are not considered to be a mistakes in the Israeli mind - You don't see many people regret that we fought them the way we did.
1,000
3.00I think this will be as Yom Kipur. Wasn’t a mistake to go initially at war since Israel was invaded, and hundreds were kidnapped, but the on going of the war will be investigated, and probably many mistakes will be revealed and unused stop points will be found.
So the mistake definition is complicated.
@mariopasquato The entirety of the war that follows. I don't think it's as hard to define as you think it is.
Would you be willing to share how you evaluate Israeli public opinion towards the response as it stands at the time of market creation?
@SpeaksForTrees I'd say that right now the collective mind is in a state of righteous fervor. Support for the war is very high. However, I'm not sure if people know what they exactly want or can realistically expect to get from this war, so a shift is possible.
At the same time, there is a high level of dissatisfaction with the current government, which can lead to the war being considered a mistake.