If Russia does NOT annex Ukraine before 2024, will Ukraine's 2030 real GDP be over 180bn USD (in 2020 US dollars)?

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Update 2024-Jan-06:

I don't think Ukraine counts as "annexed", so I resolved the other market to NA. We can re-open this market, and extend the date until 2031 (or whenever GDP data is available for 2030).

Original Criteria

This is part of a conditional forecast. This version is about Ukraine's GDP given Russian NOT annexing them this year. For the other version (Ukraine's GDP if Russia does annex Ukraine), click here.

Resolution waits until the GDP and deflator numbers for the fiscal year 2030 are published. So, probably some time in 2031.

We can use the world bank's GDP numbers.

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=UA

And we can use the World Bank's GDP deflator, to adjust it to 2020 dollars. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.DEFL.KD.ZG?locations=UA

Will Ukraine's 2030 real GDP be over 180bn USD (in 2020 US dollars)?

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#🇺🇦🇷🇺 Ukraine-Russia war

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I don't think Ukraine counts as "annexed", so I resolved the other market to NA.

We can re-open this market, and extend the date until 2031 (or whenever GDP data is available for 2030).

I've also re-arranged the market description (same criteria and wording), just to make it easier to read.

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What is Manifold?

Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.

Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.

Are our predictions accurate?

Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

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Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.

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