Resolves YES if there is a mission to the Hubble Space Telescope to raise it to a higher orbit, resolves NO if Hubble re-enters the atmosphere before any such mission takes place.
1,000
3.00Great market!
I reckon more likely than not they'll do it. Apparently there's something like 10-15 years remaining before Hubble would re-enter in an uncontrolled manner, so that's how long they have to decide whether to boost or de-orbit, both of which would require a vehicle to provide the push.
It's currently 2024 and Hubble is still functional, so given a launch is needed in either case, it seems reasonable to expect a boost is more likely than a deorbit, as long as Hubble remains functional or reasonably serviceable.
@Isaac228c For this market there just needs to be "a mission", I'm mostly trying to gauge if such a thing will be funded and attempted. If one does get funded, I'd probably make a market about "Will X Hubble reboost mission be successful". For this market, I'll say a "Hubble reboost spacecraft" has to launch for it to resolve yes. It just to leave the surface of the Earth on an orbital rocket with Hubble as a destination.
Mostly this is because "Success" is hard or impossible to clearly define before there's an actual mission profile.