Will there be at least USD 1M worth of damage caused by LLM-assisted spear phishing before 2025? | Manifold

Will there be at least USD 1M worth of damage caused by LLM-assisted spear phishing before 2025?

Basic

5

Ṁ82

Dec 31

68%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves on my judgement of reporting by NY Times, BBC, or other reputable news source.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Information security

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

Looks like phishing scams reported to the FBI in 2020 totaled $54M in losses: https://www.ic3.gov/Media/PDF/AnnualReport/2020_IC3Report.pdf

Most of my credence here is on the very large scale of phishing in general, rather than the effectiveness of LLM-assisted spear phishing in particular.

Would you count money companies spend with their solution/technology providers to get the 'defend against llm email attacks!' modules? 😅

@Abraxas no, exclusively scams or industrial espionage

@RyanKidd haha well that's much less certain than, I'll still bet yes though.

lol, okay so this doesn't mean using a spear to kill fish that live in the water?

@ian oops, misspelled

Related questions

Will there be a cybersecurity event affecting US infrastructure and dealing more than $20 million in damage by 2025

[Metaculus] Will a major cyberattack/malware use LLMs in some important way before January 1st, 2025? [Ṁ1000 subsidy]

Will there be a USD 1 billion or more hack/collapse in the crypto ecosystem in 2024? (according to Molly White/W3IGG)

Will the next successful hack of the US election involve phishing? 🇺🇸🗳️🧑🏻‍💻

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than one hundred billion dollars by 2030?

Will there be an LLM capable of performing full-time web application hacking by 2025

By 2025, a large scale hacking attack relies heavily on LLM hacking capabilities.

Will another LLM prompting challenge with prizes worth $10k+ be completed by the end of 2024?

From 2020 to 2025, will there be a decrease in the number of malicious emails that are sent with an attachment or link?

Will any computer virus powered by AI cause large damages to digital infrastructure by 2027?

Related questions

Will there be a cybersecurity event affecting US infrastructure and dealing more than $20 million in damage by 2025

Will there be an LLM capable of performing full-time web application hacking by 2025

[Metaculus] Will a major cyberattack/malware use LLMs in some important way before January 1st, 2025? [Ṁ1000 subsidy]

By 2025, a large scale hacking attack relies heavily on LLM hacking capabilities.

Will there be a USD 1 billion or more hack/collapse in the crypto ecosystem in 2024? (according to Molly White/W3IGG)

Will another LLM prompting challenge with prizes worth $10k+ be completed by the end of 2024?

Will the next successful hack of the US election involve phishing? 🇺🇸🗳️🧑🏻‍💻

From 2020 to 2025, will there be a decrease in the number of malicious emails that are sent with an attachment or link?

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than one hundred billion dollars by 2030?

Will any computer virus powered by AI cause large damages to digital infrastructure by 2027?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules