Resolves YES if, before market close, a medical authority, law enforcement entity, member of Naroditsky's family, Naroditsky's friends, or chess peers (excluding Kramnik) unambiguously, publicly states something that implies they believe it is more likely than not that Daniel Naroditsky's death was a suicide.
Examples of statements that would cause a YES resolution:
"Naroditsky committed suicide"
"Naroditsky likely committed suicide"
"Naroditsky probably committed suicide"
"I think that Naroditsky committed suicide"
Examples of statements that would not cause a YES resolution:
"Naroditsky may have committed suicide"
"In light of Naroditsky's death, if you are feeling suicidal, please seek help"
Otherwise, resolves NO at market close.
1,000
3.00@VerificationMFA for me the biggest uncertainty is whether anything definitive will be revealed by April
Man, that is so sad. I've enjoyed well over 100 hours of his content in my life.
I saw the thumbnail/title of his last YouTube video titled You Thought I Was Gone!? Speedrun Returns! | English, French | GM Naroditsky's DYI Speedrun a couple days ago and literally thought the "gone" in "You Thought I Was Gone!?" meant "dead" but then didn't put two-and-two together to realize it was a cry for help. Instead I just dismissed it in one second as a bad title (a wordless "don't joke about death" thought crossed my mind before I went back to what I was doing). In retrospect, it seems obvious that Naroditsky's suicide risk was significantly above base rate, but the hypothesis never occurred to me to seriously consider it. Very sad. (To be clear, I don't have any private insight into whether Naroditsky's cause of death is suicide; that just seems ~90% likely to me based on what I know from his public content.) I wish people wouldn't commit suicide, at least not without very explicitly telling everyone so they have an opportunity to intervene. Suicides are such needless tragedies. There are enough problems in the world that are hard to solve, we don't have to add more.
@WilliamKiely Yes, I watched him quite a bit and his whole nature was wonderful and calm, caring, sincere. I also had that video suddenly pop up and watched it, but without as much thought as you put into it. He did seem a bit unhappy/weird but within that was also that same thing I always liked about him. When I found out about his death (via a manifold notification) I was much sorrier than I'd realized. And as I've expanded speaking about it it turns out many of my friends also spent hours listening to him and also feel really sad about his loss.
I am really also mad that this happened and view it as a failure. We cannot lose good people like that. We have to protect them. Consistently having people like him die out will lead to bad places; he should have been thriving for 50 more years, encricled by his friends and loving family, spreading his attitude towards the difficulties of life to more and more people. How are we going to do that? what steps can we take? at the very least, if someone seems lost and hopeless, my personal advice is to go to them and spend time with them, care and show them how much they mean. I don't know what happened to him but I wish he had had someone to be with in his hour of need.