Will GPT-5 be released before Dec 2024?

In order to qualify as released in the context of this question, GPT-5 must either be accessible to any consumer willing to pay, or free to access for anyone, in at least 4 of the following countries: USA, UK, France, Japan, India, Canada, Australia, Germany, Italy before the specified date.

A release of the text component alone is sufficient to resolve this question as YES. However, a staged release (a release of a smaller model than the largest version of GPT-5) is not considered to be the "release" in the context of this question.

If access is restricted (e.g. due to resource availability limitations) at this question's end date, then this market resolves as YES only if the majority of existing paying accounts on OpenAI's premium offer that were subscribed a week prior to this end date can use the model. This must be true in at least 4 of the countries listed above. The anywhere on earth time zone is used for this question.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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@mods OP's account has been deleted, we're in December everywhere on earth, and GPT-5 isn't out. Resolves NO

bought Ṁ25 YES

The odds of yes are surely higher than 35%. Anthropic has already committed to releasing 3.5 Opus later this year. Surely OpenAI will not let that go unanswered for an appreciable length of time

they might release something in between 4o and GPT-5, or call their new frontier model something other than GPT-5. but yes that is an important consideration.

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