In one month from today, I'll sample the top 20 hot markets on Manifold everyday for a week. If > 50% of the hot markets relate to politics this market resolves NO
Update 2024-12-12 (PST): - UHC assassination related markets will be counted as political markets (AI summary of creator comment)
1,000
3.00@Quillist I'm not 100% confident about this, but one thing to flag is that I'm pretty sure the "Browse" page is at least a little bit specialized to the user. E.g. at a glance, I think it might give some boosts based on the topics you're interested in (plus maybe to creators you follow).
could always ask staff if you want to be sure. but if that's true, worth flagging because (1) people "checking your work" might get different answers, & (2) while manifold has been obviously politics dominated for everyone who doesn't block those topics, the degree of politics domination might be at least a little sensitive to how much you historically bet on politics topics (again, not 100% on that, just from glancing at the code)
@Ziddletwix good point, I'll be using an incognito edge browser running on Windows with a VPN proxying Chicago.
Hopefully that could mitigate any algorithmic personalization mechanics
@Quillist yup assume that works. (AFAIK as long as you're logged out it'll be identical, no further targeting, but i don't know that for sure so who knows)