Since inception, Bitcoin has had a distinct 4 year boom and bust cycle, consisting of 3 boom years (positive returns over each year) and one bust year (negative returns of the year). See below for information on the last three cycles.
For this market to evaluate to YES requires two things:
BTC needs to have a positive return for each of the three years: 2023, 2024 and 2025
BTC needs to have a negative return for the year 2026
Returns calculated with the Coinbase BTCUSD close price as of 12/31 4PM EST
2011-2014 Cycle
BOOM
2011: +1,319%
2012: +217%
2013: +5,537%
BUST
2014: -58%
2015-2018 Cycle
BOOM
2015: +34%
2016: +123%
2017: +1,414%
BUST
2018: -75%
2019-2022 Cycle
BOOM
2019: +94%
2020: +308%
2021: +57%
BUST
2022: -64%
1,000
3.00Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle appears to be sustainable. Historically, after each halving, the price of Bitcoin has risen sharply, fueling expectations that the cycle will continue into 2023–2026. However, markets are maturing, and new factors such as institutional investment and regulation may change the usual trends. However, many investors still believe in the cycle, expecting another bull market after 2024. But as always with cryptocurrencies, nothing is guaranteed. I would recommend listening to the experts at siu credit union customer service , who monitor this market daily and can make some predictions.
The 2023 hurdle has been cleared. /BoltonBailey/which-prices-will-btc-be-above-on-2-a64270d212e8 currently suggesting a 55% chance of being up over 2024. If we assume the same and independent for 2025 and 2026, thats 13%.
@BoltonBailey Appreciate the analysis here, personally I think the fact that markets exhibit momentum and reflexivity makes the independence assumption a little tenuous but it’s still a good barometer.