Will any new Van der Waerden number be known by the end of 2030?
Basic
6
Ṁ54
2032
53%
chance

The Van der Waerden number W(r,k) is equal to the smallest N such that, if the numbers 1 through N are colored with r colors, there is always an arithmetic progression of length at least k with the same color.

Trivially, W(1,k) = k, W(r,1)=1, and W(r,2) = r+1 for all k,r. However, all other values are difficult to compute, and only 7 are known to date:

  • W(2,3) = 9

  • W(2,4) = 35

  • W(2,5) = 178

  • W(2,6) = 1132

  • W(3,3) = 27

  • W(3,4) = 293

  • W(4,3) = 76

Will any other Van der Waerdin number be known by the end of 2030? This will be based on whenever the discovery is published, and the closure date is a year later than the deadline to ensure that I don't miss it if it is published right before 2030 ends.

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