After losing to Liverpool at home, United have a -3 GD. This market resolves to yes if they have a goal difference of at least 1 in the 2024 calendar year portion of 24-25 Premier League season (around half the season).
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3.00@bagelfan At half time, it would have required a +6 GD by United in 45 minutes to overturn the outcome
@PlainBG literally irrelevant - you don't resolve the question unless the criterion has been fulfilled!
@PlainBG Why not wait until the game was over? Prediction markets resolve once an outcome is known with certainty, not when it is likely.
@bagelfan Come on, there would be like a 1 in 5000 chance it would happen, in ANY premier league game. Networks are less conservative when they make election calls... I'm glad 95 people enjoyed trading the market for the past few months
@PlainBG On the main House control market (https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/will-republicans-take-the-majority-92f2658efb69?play=false), Manifold waited 48 hours after AP called the race to resolve to make sure that it was resolved correctly. Obviously, there is a trade-off between resolving early and avoiding unresolves, since it is also bad to lock in users' mana & sweepcash. For example, I would not suggest that you wait until the end of the season in case the Premier League decides to retroactively redo VAR decisions for these games. However, waiting just another hour until the final game is over seems like a better thing to do than resolving early, and is what I think most traders would expect. If you really want to resolve it before it is certain, you could add that you may do so in the description.
I'm not sure why you added the part about 95 people enjoying trading on your market. In case you got the wrong idea, I also had a lot of fun trading on it (this is one of just two liked questions of mine), and I certainly would be interested in a similar market (perhaps with a February deadline?)
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After today, United GD is 0 with 15 fixtures to go