What did the Il-76 shot down on 1/24 carry?
➕
Plus
27
Ṁ2152
Jun 30
72%
Ukrainian prisoners
18%
Missiles
Resolved
N/A
No Prisoners of War [clarification pending]

An Il-76 airplane has crashed in Russia's Belgorod region. Russia claims it was transporting over 60 Ukrainian prisoners. Some Ukrainian media initially said it carried S-300 missiles and was "the work of the Ukrainan [forces]", but then withdrew/redacted the claim.


What did the plane carry? I will resolve to every significant type of cargo/kind of passanger according to (Western) media/expert consensus. If the answers are not clear by market expiration, I will either resolve N/A or extend the deadline. I may resolve early if the answers seem clear.

Please only add specific and non-trivial answers, not e.g. "things" or "its own crew"; I will delete anything else.

Update: Extended until June 30, 2025.

See also:

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

Russia claimed in December 2024 that it returned the bodies of Ukrainian POWs killed in the crash. If confirmed, this would resolve the respective option to "yes", but not necessarily mean the "missiles" option is wrong. Unless anyone can point me to evidence on either question, I will extend the market by another 6 months.

Shortly after the event, there were indications that it was "likely" there were Ukrainian prisoners on board; however, it wasn't definite, and I haven't seen any reliable new information on this. If you have any relevant links, please provide them; otherwise, I'll extend the deadline until the end of the year.

Market extended until EOY.

Grace Kind ♠︎boughtṀ71 YES

“A Russian plane shot down with a Patriot missile was probably carrying Ukrainian prisoners of war, U.S. officials say.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/08/us/politics/ukraine-russia-patriot-missile.html

How is this different from buying "no" on "Ukrainian prisoners of war"?

@PS Since there was no reply, resolving this N/A

@PS How many Ukrainian prisoners need to be confirmed for the "Ukrainian prisoners" to resolve YES?

@Irigi Any; one would be enough.

@PS wouldn't prisoners imply at least two?

@komplexkonjugat I meant this as a mass noun, as in "any prisoners", which I think includes one prisoner

This hasn't been resolved yet! Plz change

@Lorelai What do you mean?

@PS we don't know what was on the plane yet?

@Lorelai I'm also a noob so maybe I got it wrong and you haven't "resolved"

@Lorelai No, the question is not resolved, you are welcome to continue betting : )

@PS oh confusing ahahaha thanks

@Lorelai A resolved question looks like this

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules