NVIDIA's Market Cap on Jan 1, 2026, in $ Trillions?
NVIDIA's Market Cap on Jan 1, 2026, in $ Trillions?
Basic
26
Ṁ1397
2026
4.6
expected

What will NVIDIA's market cap be on Jan 1st, 2026, in $ Trillions?
https://ycharts.com/companies/NVDA/market_cap

I'll use ycharts to resolve.

NVIDIA's market cap recently jumped to over $1B. If AI experiences a much larger takeoff in the next few years, NVIDIA seems likely to be one of the main companies to benefit from this.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00


Sort by:
1y

Added liquidity!

predictedLOWER

<deleted>

1y

Why did you rule out the option that it decreases from today? The current value should be more like the expectation value (up to inflation) instead of the minimum.

predictedHIGHER 1y

@LeonBohnmann That was unintentional, if there is some limit.

predictedLOWER 1y

@OzzieGooen Im also not sure how these work, but since the "HIGHER" bidders cannot lose more than everything (which they do on 1.0), I do not know where the extra profit should come from in case it was actually lower than 1.0.

predictedLOWER 1y

@LeonBohnmann The bounds are actually 0 - 100. Not sure why the graph shows 1.

predictedLOWER 1y

If you spam 9 in the "bet lower" box, it will show the real lower bound.

predictedLOWER

@travis Then why are "HIGHER" options so cheap? And how should 0 even work on a log scale? That's like unbounded losses for the "HIGHER" bidders. I think that preview below 1 is a bug.

predictedLOWER 1y

@travis Do you remember what you entered when you created the question? Because the maximum on that graph also jumps between 10 and 100 when I click it.

predictedLOWER 1y

@LeonBohnmann They never explained exactly how these work. They give this mapping formula in the API docs: (max - min + 1)^probability + minstart - 1

Maybe minstart is supposed to be min? I think the graph is wrong based on playing around with these two other numeric log markets:

When will Betelgeuse go supernova ?

What will the population of NEOM be in 2030?

predictedLOWER 1y

@travis Oh, I thought it was min*(max/min)^probability, as shown in their plots. Their formula at least allows you to put in 0 as a minimum and that explains why they cannot use the min and max for their plots.

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules