Will X (Twitter) still exist in 2030?
Will X (Twitter) still exist in 2030?
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Will X (or a differently named/owned successor corp that is recognized as at least distantly related to Twitter) still exist in 2030?
It must have continuously existed from market creation to Jan 1st 2030 to count; and while it can change entirely into something else eventually, it can't do so in a non-linear way (I.e. we can't all wake up tomorrow morning to find X.com is now a redirect to a lawn care company owned by Musk. That's something else entirely and not a gradual shift.)
This question may resolve to "no" when it is either publicly obvious or a widespread consensus emerges that Twitter/X is officially "dead" (no site, no services, no entity to pay for blue check marks, etc.)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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