@traders The past ceasefire taught me that it’s difficult to ascertain whether a given situation counts as a permanent conclusion of hostilities, so I’m going to update the criteria keeping the spirit, but making them clearer.

The market will resolve positively as soon as one of the following 4 conditions is fulfilled:

1. A ceasefire is established and holds for 90 days.

2. Israel announces the conclusion of the military operation and doesn’t renew the offensive within the next 90 days.

3. Hamas ceases to exist and is not replaced within the next 90 days by a similar organization that would continue active resistance in Gaza.

4. The state of Israel ceases to exist.

In all cases the target date is the start of the respective period, but the resolution date (except in option 4) is 90 days later.

Resolving January-February as NO based on the renewed hostilities: https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/idf-says-its-prepared-to-widen-gaza-assualt-beyond-air-raids-after-targeting-hamas-commanders-politburo-members-and-infrastructure/

Hostilities have begun again.

Since I'm not hearing anything about the Stage 2 agreement, but the ceasefire keeps holding, as an alternative I'll resolve Jan 2025 as YES if all of the Israeli hostages are released without the renewal of hostilities.

@OlegEterevsky I admire your diligence in resolving this market, however I wonder if we haven't already seen the original resolution criterion of "a few days" being met?

3. Hostilities end in some other way.

As soon as one of these criteria is fulfilled and at least a few days pass without the renewal of the fighting,

@GazDownright You are looking at the wrong criterion. The "few days" criterion has been met, but the "long term agreement" hasn't.

@OlegEterevsky I read it like "when one of 1, 2, or 3 happens for a few days it's a YES."

That is to say, "long term" isn't needed when "hostilities end in some other way," as only one of them were needed.

Fwiw, that's how I interpret it.

@GazDownright I'm sorry that the original description wasn't quite clear. As soon as the present ceasefire has been announced, I posted the comment below to clarify the resolution criteria under the current plan.

What I didn't anticipate when I first wrote this question was that the ceasefire would be agreed upon as temporary, but would effectively be indefinite. Hence the confusion.

Just wanted to note that, in accordance with the market description, I'll resolve the market when the following happens:

1. Ceasefire is officially announced.

2. It is indefinite or long term (more than a couple of months).

3. A week passes without the renewal of hostilities.

@OlegEterevsky Sorry, nevermind

@OlegEterevsky I think that this market would have been better to have resolved retrospectively. For example, there have been X months of stability after the commencement of a ceasefire. This would have led to less confusion.

Right now, based on your definition, there is no way you can resolve the market in Jan (because the ceasefire signed right now is temporary in nature, and is defined for 53 days (so it doesn't pass the "indefinite" criteria). However, you can see the traders misprice it at over 70% vs close to 0%.

@gpt4 I think 53 days should count as long term.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 Then read what the market creator wrote just a few comments above.

@gpt4 I agree that it would probably been better to define the market to be resolved say 2 months after the start of the cease-fire. However since it's not what I've initially written, I'll try to stick with the original intent.

I will resolve "Jan 2025" as YES if the following two conditions are met:

1. There's no significant military actions for at least a week starting from Jan 19th.

2. The current ceasefire turns into an indefinite one. To avoid dragging it out, under the current plan I'll do it as soon as Stage 2 details are agreed upon.

Just Stage 1 sounds like a temporary short-term ceasefire to me, so I'm not resolving the market based on that.

@traders does it sound fair?

@OlegEterevsky just a week? Should be 30 days.

@nsokolsky I wrote "a few days" in the original description. Anyway, I doubt the agreement for the 2nd stage will be made so quickly, so we'll have to wait for some time either way.

@OlegEterevsky If they agree on phase 2 in February, without further hostilities, you will still resolve January as YES, given that's when the hostilities ended, right?

@OlegEterevsky ping

@GazDownright Sorry, missed your previous comment. Yes, I'll resolve January as YES, since the ceasefire has started in January and I'm delaying the resolution only to see whether it becomes long-term.

@OlegEterevsky no worries. Thanks for the clarification

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cgq1l5kv2npo

Talks to reach a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal between Israel and Hamas are 90% complete, but key issues remain that need to be bridged, a senior Palestinian official involved in the talks told the BBC.

“Hostilities” is a very funny way of saying ethnic cleansing and genocide…

@mqudsi If Israel were to stop ethnic cleansing/genocide but keep up hostilities then the market would not resolve

Now that the leader of Hamas is dead, there's nothing stopping Bibi from agreeing to a ceasefire and getting the hostages back.

well there's one pretty important thing: they just killed the guy who was negotiating the ceasefire

No offense to hamas, but I'm pretty sure they won't be dictating terms any time soon.

They killed the leader of the political wing, who had limited real power. Sinwar has all the real control over Hamas in the ways that matter.