What will be the first celestial body other than Earth, Moon and Mars to be visited by humans?
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Plus
18
Ṁ663
2100
4%
Mercury
1.2%
Venus
1.8%
Io
26%
Europa
16%
Ganymede
31%
Callisto
1.8%
Titan
19%
Other

So far humans have set foot on Earth and Moon. There are also some early plan to send humans to Mars. This question is about the next celestial body to be landed on by humans.

For this market to resolve, a human astronaut has to be on the surface of the celestial body, either inside or outside of a spacecraft.

Only celestial bodies which have a surface with surface gravity at least 10% g are considered. This excludes gas giants, asteroids and smaller moons.

In case the landing happens after the line between human and AI gets blurred, the entity that lands on the celestial body has to contain the whole human mind (or what counts as such at the time). Remotely controlled body doesn't count.

The option "Other" covers interstellar objects and potential undiscovered planets in Solar System.

If no landing happens before the closing date, the market will be extended or resolved to N/A.

I do not bet on my own questions.

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Since Other is currently at 29%, I just wanted to reiterate, that all currently known celestial bodies with surface gravity at least 10% g are listed. The only possibility for "Other" would be Planet X or some interstellar object.

bought Ṁ50 YES

Callisto is far more likely than either Ganymede or Europa, due to being outside of Jupiter's intense radiation belt.

15% Other

Have I missed any known bodies in the Solar System that match the description? I don’t think so.

"Only celestial bodies which have a surface with surface gravity at least 10% g are considered."
This even excludes Ceres, which is unfortunate.

@HarrisonNathan I wanted to exclude hanging around some small asteroid or comet and needed to draw a line somewhere. 0.1g seems like a reasonable cutoff.

For this market to resolve, a human astronaut has to be on the surface of the celestial body, either inside or outside of a spacecraft.

Is there a requirement that the person should be alive?

@bessarabov Yes. Sorry, I forgot to mention it

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