As the Musk/Trump rift escalates, will Musk accuse himself of election manipulation?
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2025, Elon Musk publicly states that he manipulated the 2024 election. The statement must be made through an official channel, such as his verified social media accounts, a press release, or a public interview. If no such statement is made by the end of 2025, the market will resolve to "No."
Update 2025-07-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that a statement only implying manipulation (e.g., saying Trump owes him the presidency) will not be sufficient for a YES resolution. A more direct statement that he manipulated the election is required.
Update 2025-07-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A statement that only implies manipulation (e.g., "Trump owes him the presidency") is not sufficient for a YES resolution.
To resolve YES, Musk must state he did something specific that had a substantial effect on the election result. Examples of statements that would likely resolve to YES include admissions of:
Willingly altering Twitter/X to spread propaganda
Knowingly lying to benefit a candidate
Buying votes
The creator will take any such public statement at face value, without attempting to determine if Musk is joking.
1,000
3.00@Velaris to qualify this better: to say that Trump owes him the presidency is too vague and could mean anything. What we are looking for is Musk saying he did something specific that had a substantial effect on the result. Bonus if that thing is illegal or at least clearly unethical.
some examples that would probably resolve YES:
he says he willingly messed with twitter to spread Trump propaganda.
he said he knowingly lied (on twitter or elsewhere) to benefit Trump
he says he was buying votes [for Trump]
This list is not exhaustive. None of these things need to be true for the market to resolve YES, just that Elon says them in public, and I'll take him at face value, without attempting to determine if he's joking or not