Will an AI-generated song reach the Billboard Hot 100 song charts by the end of 2025?
Will an AI-generated song reach the Billboard Hot 100 song charts by the end of 2025?
Basic
13
Ṁ392Dec 31
21%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The list can be found here:
https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/
The song can be sung by humans, but the beat and lyrics must come from AI with only minor human changes.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
bought Ṁ5 YES2mo
While the resolution criteria of this market allow the song to be sung by humans, I'm convinced, even when this comment was posted, that songs sung by humans have at most 6 months left before human vocalists are considered inferior to AI-generated vocals. It's already possible to exceed human vocalists if you know how to prompt the models.
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
By the end of 2025 will general AIs like GPT-4o make better music than specialist AIs like Udio did in spring of 2024?
14% chance
Will an AI-generated song reach #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?
41% chance
🎵 By 2026, will any fully AI-generated song hit the Billboard Hot 100 or Spotify Top 50 for at least one week?
67% chance
Will any song on Billboard Hot 100 before 2026 be composed by AI?
50% chance
Will any AI music I release achieve 10,000 listens on Soundcloud in 2025?
52% chance
Will there be a song created by an AI system in the year-end top 100 Billboards chart by 2026?
42% chance
Will there be a song created by an AI system in the year-end top 100 Billboards chart by 2026?
67% chance
Will any AI-created song make the Billboard Global 200 before 2029?
54% chance
By 2030, will at least one song in the Billboard Hot 100 have been primarily AI-generated?
92% chance
Will any song on Billboard Hot 100 before 2027 be composed by AI?
45% chance