🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ280 | |
2 | Ṁ266 | |
3 | Ṁ227 | |
4 | Ṁ107 | |
5 | Ṁ98 |
These questions only measure what the most optimistic trader thinks the discount rate is
Others knowing the discount rate is higher have better opportunities than betting NO on questions that'll resolve YES in year(s). Because Manifold's discount rate is much higher than these questions imply, we instead borrow tens of thousands at exorbitantly higher interest rates from whales like @jack and profit more than enough to cover that. Those loan interest rates are closer to actual discount rates, and are usually >60% APY from my experience
@jack "This question is meant to find out whether Manifold users are incentivized to correctly predict on longer-term markets" - by buying at 99, im testing people's willingness to hold large amounts of mana in a market which wont profit them thaat much at this point. If they sell, I sell my NOs, and profit. I'm not buying NO w.r.t the market's resolution but its predicted behavior by me - that many people will sell their YES shares temporarily before close
@firstuserhere That primarily makes sense for people who have held for less than a few months, right? After that, the bulk of their funds have already been returned as loans.
@firstuserhere I think that might be profitable, but it requires you to be constantly checking the market. Not viable for most people
If there is a 5% fee from each successful YES share upon resolution, how come it goes to 99% and not 95%?