Will a model costing >$30M be intentionally trained to be more mechanistically interpretable by end of 2027? (see desc)
Will a model costing >$30M be intentionally trained to be more mechanistically interpretable by end of 2027? (see desc)
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Will any language model costing >$30M be intentionally trained with modifications to be more mechanistically interpretable by 2027?
If the training-scheme with modifications is more than a small amount better for capabilities than the [possibly next] capabilities-best training scheme at the time (available to the model trainers), it doesn't count for the purposes of this market.
Modifications to architecture, optimizer, etc. The modifications must be made with the intention to make the model more interpretable.
Costing >$30M is in my estimation, the cost does not need to be published.
I will not trade in this market.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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