At least 20 pardoned Jan 6 rioters involved in politically motivated violence by end of 2026
At least 20 pardoned Jan 6 rioters involved in politically motivated violence by end of 2026
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This market resolves YES if 20 or more individuals who received pardons for January 6-related charges are reported by major news outlets (ABC News, NBC News, etc.) to be involved in new politically motivated violence by December 31, 2026.
Politically motivated violence includes: physical assault, property damage, threats against public figures, or other violent acts with clear political motivation.
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What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
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