Will the WHO declare an H5N1 pandemic before 2030?
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Feb 6, 11:16am: Will the WHO declare a H5N1 pandemic before 2030? → Will the WHO declare an H5N1 pandemic before 2030?
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https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26328/human-transmission-of-h5n1-before-2026/ is at 17%
Knowing nothing about virology, I'd naively guess the risk pre-year decreases exponentially. Does anyone informed on virology and mutation rates know what the relevant base rate and mechanism is?
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