Who will be the first person on Mars?
Basic
10
Ṁ2652029
34%
27%
Connor Duffy
14%
Someone who is not an option in this market at close time
10%
Qiaochu Yuan
6%
Jared Isaacman
2%
Jebediah Kerman
2%
X Æ A-12
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
@kolotom99 Thanks! I was fiddling with a market-tracking spreadsheet and needed a dummy market title, typed this out on a whim, and thought "Hang on, that could actually be a good one..."
@MartinRandall arguably not a person
Of course, I think (hard AI is true) xor (hard AI is false and we are not truly intelligent by the same definition)
@LivInTheLookingGlass My m1 is a bet that the first person will be an AI which has "personhood" in the relevant sense.
@MartinRandall An AI with personhood would count. Defining personhood will be tricky, but that's a bridge to be crossed later...
Related questions
Related questions
Will the first person to walk on Mars make it back to Earth?
73% chance
Will the first person to walk on Mars be a woman?
46% chance
The first humanoid to set foot on Mars will be...
Will the first person to land on Mars ever return to Earth?
70% chance
Will the first person on Mars be a citizen of the United States?
66% chance
When will the first Mars landing occur?
When will the first humans land on Mars?
2042
🧑🚀 What will be true about the first person(s) to walk on Mars? [ADD RESPONSES]
Will the first person to walk on Mars be white?
61% chance
What animal will be the first to walk on Mars?