Ukraine warcasting megamarket

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Jan 1

99.1%

Will Zelensky be in power 2025 Jan 1st?

99.1%

Will Putin be in power 2025 Jan 1st?

94%

Will Trump be in power 2026 Jan 1st?

69%

Will there be a generally acknlowledged agreement to end fighting by EOY 2026 (lasts for at least 1 year)

60%

Will Putin be in power 2028 Jan 1st?

52%

>5 regular NATO member state troops participate in active combat in Ukraine by EOY 2026

45%

Will there be a generally acknlowledged agreement to end fighting by EOY 2025 (lasts for at least 1 year)

25%

Will Zelensky be in power 2028 Jan 1st?

16%

Will a successful coup happen in Ukraine before the peace is established?

16%

Will a successful coup happen in Russia before the peace is established?

13%

Nuclear weapon launch aimed in such a way that it causes fewer than 10 civilian deaths (eg stratosphere, battlefield, over ocean) before 2030 by Russia

10%

Russian nuke which causes more than 10 civilian deaths, by 2030

Will Russia or Ukraine gain control over a new city of 250k population by EOY 2024

Will there be a generally acknlowledged agreement to end fighting by EOY 2024 (lasts for at least 1 year)

1.8%

>5 regular NATO member state troops participate in active combat in Ukraine by EOY 2024

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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@NathanpmYoung Can be resolved.

@NathanpmYoung what's the conditions for this?

@MalachiteEagle What are the things you think are ambiguous?

@NathanpmYoung who is considered a credible source for this question? Reputable news organisations?

@MalachiteEagle Yes. Thank you for asking.

@NathanpmYoung which do you consider reputable?

Shameless plug:

bought Ṁ50 YES

If aimed at a testing site, will likely cause less than 10 civilian deaths.

bought Ṁ500 NO

This is EOY 2024 right?

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