In Jan 2027, will the top 3 leading AI labs be offering fewer than 15 flagship LLMs between them?
In Jan 2027, will the top 3 leading AI labs be offering fewer than 15 flagship LLMs between them?
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ie Will they tend to have 1-2 top models they sell, or will they have like 50, each for some very specific purpose.
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@ahalekelly Yes I think probably. I mean like will they offer GPT-4 or will they offer GPT-customer-service, GPT-management, GPT-research etc
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
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