This market is based on a poll posted on X by Tim Dodd the Everyday Astronaut.
If the result is ambiguous, I may use Everyday Astronaut's followup video, if there is one, as a source for resolution.
See the full list of markets at https://manifold.markets/news/everyday-astronaut-2025-predictions
1,000
3.00I don't think they're gonna fly a booster until Raptor V3. They didn't move a bunch of the plumbing to be internal just to make it look cool, it's about thermal protection.
Also, reflying stalls your development pipeline. Maybe the booster is close enough to "done" that they're not concerned about testing the latest changes, but I don't get the sense that they're there yet (or even very close, i.e. Raptor 3 and tank stretches coming).
This market says 50% it first happens in 2025, https://manifold.markets/Multicore/which-of-ars-technicas-starship-tim says 40% it first happens in 1st half 2026, combined that implies <10% chance it hasn't been done by July 2026. Not sure I'm that confident.
Do we know if any of the already-used Super Heavy Boosters would be even suitable for re-use, or have the designs changed enough that they would not even be candidates?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00