Which booster will fly 20 times first?
Which booster will fly 20 times first?
Basic
4
Ṁ601resolved Apr 13
1D
1W
1M
ALL
100%99.0%
Falcon 9
0.5%
Starship
0.5%Other
The current record is 19 times by a Falcon 9 booster.
I'm mostly interested in real reuse rather than elaborate refurbishment like the shuttle program. I'm not sure how to capture that clearly in the conditions though.
Which booster will fly 20 times first?
Which booster will fly 25 times first?
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B1058 flew 19 times but then fell over so that one won't do 20.
B1060 B1061 and B1062 have all flown 18 times
Starship is not yet attempting booster recovery and probably won't for a few to several months and getting to 20 won't initially be quick. certain to be one of the f9 boosters but return at 98% is quite a wait. Higher numbers of reuses rather less certain.
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What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
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